Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:29:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3899…9ab1 crypto 102 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$96 (+4%) realized +$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate75%76W / 26L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$21
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$30
other 0% −$9
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +3.0% -6.8% 76% 41% -8.7%
≤30d 102 +0.9% -8.7% 75% 40% -9.0%
≤90d 102 +0.9% -8.7% 75% 40% -9.0%
all 102 +0.9% -8.7% 75% 40% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 40% -9.0%
10% -17.4% 25% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 16% -25.7%
20% -32.7% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$14 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses76 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage12d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 102 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 28 $101 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $32 +$144 +455%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 28 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$8 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 28 $31 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 27 $30 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $30 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $31 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $31 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $100 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $176 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $32 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $30 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 211 history records