Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:08:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
38 0x389c…7e01 world 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$3
other 21% $0
politics 19% $0
crypto 6% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 +0.5% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 8 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.9%
all 29 +0.4% -9.2% 52% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.76 per $1 lost it wins $4.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage451d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $51 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $56 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $55 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jun 07 $5 $0 -2%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 13 $21 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Apr 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? Apr 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 05 $22 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 03 $20 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose a blanket tariff of 30-40% on the EU by June 30? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? Mar 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 31 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $3 2m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $43 2m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 62¢ $4 2m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 62¢ $13 5m
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 62¢ $38 5m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $56 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $56 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $19 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $29 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $1 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $49 13h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $2 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $10 27d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 96¢ $44 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 96¢ $54 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 28d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $54 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $56 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $42 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $15 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $55 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $4 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $13 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $6 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $11 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $10 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records