Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:36:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
38 0x389d…a58f sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,436 (+10%) realized +$1,594 · open −$158
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$257est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,738now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,530
7 days+$2,441
14 days+$2,433
30 days+$1,788
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,230
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +80.8% +63.5% 75% 75% +45.1%
≤30d 12 +20.5% +9.0% 50% 50% +25.0%
≤90d 44 +14.5% +3.6% 36% 34% +1.6%
all 44 +14.5% +3.6% 36% 34% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 34% +1.6%
10% -6.3% 34% -8.2%
15% -15.4% 32% -17.0%
20% -23.7% 30% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$82 · ×2.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$2,738
Realized+$1,594
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$257
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage67d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces New York Liberty 48¢ 45¢ $2,896 $2,738 −$158 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Jun 22 $450 +$672 +150%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 22 $945 +$997 +106%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 22 $1,660 +$510 +31%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 22 $35 +$65 +188%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 22 $59 +$141 +238%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Madison Keys vs Cristina Bucsa Jun 22 $386 −$13 -4%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 22 $420 +$158 +38%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $92 −$90 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $207 −$201 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $393 −$368 -94%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings May 29 $82 −$76 -92%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $275 −$257 -93%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 05 $302 −$15 -5%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) May 04 $116 −$7 -6%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) May 04 $75 +$125 +165%
Madrid Open: Linda Noskova vs Liudmila Samsonova May 04 $469 −$16 -3%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) May 04 $113 +$187 +165%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) May 04 $119 +$181 +152%
Madrid Open: Madison Keys vs Shuai Zhang May 04 $504 −$17 -3%
Jiangsu Dragons vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards May 04 $844 +$9 +1%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies May 03 $125 −$123 -99%
Nanterre vs. Dijon May 02 $50 −$47 -94%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) May 02 $183 −$180 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) May 01 $173 −$170 -98%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) May 01 $173 −$170 -98%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) May 01 $79 −$78 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Apr 24 $227 −$4 -2%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Apr 24 $474 −$34 -7%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Apr 24 $510 −$26 -5%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 24 $50 +$87 +172%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 24 $40 +$105 +262%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 24 $51 +$115 +226%
Abidjan: Calvin Hemery vs Maks Kasnikowski Apr 24 $69 +$103 +149%
Gwangju: Alex Bolt vs Ilia Simakin Apr 24 $112 +$112 +100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics Apr 24 $241 +$123 +51%
Oeiras 4: Darja Semenistaja vs Carole Monnet Apr 24 $546 −$19 -3%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 22 $19 −$19 -97%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Apr 18 $38 −$2 -4%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Apr 18 $126 −$6 -5%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Apr 18 $129 −$5 -4%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Apr 18 $129 −$5 -4%
Independiente de Oliva vs. Quimsa Apr 18 $251 −$249 -99%
Tianjin Pioneers vs. Qingdao Eagles Apr 17 $99 −$98 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL New York Liberty 46¢ $10 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $211 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $211 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL New York Liberty 46¢ $10 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $211 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL New York Liberty 46¢ $10 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL New York Liberty 46¢ $9 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $211 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL New York Liberty 46¢ $10 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $211 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL New York Liberty 46¢ $10 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $211 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $211 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL New York Liberty 44¢ $4 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $87 1h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL New York Liberty 47¢ $10 6h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 48¢ $226 6h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL New York Liberty 47¢ $10 7h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 48¢ $226 7h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL New York Liberty 47¢ $10 7h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 48¢ $226 7h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL New York Liberty 47¢ $10 7h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 48¢ $226 7h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 49¢ $105 9h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 50¢ $234 11h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 48¢ $40 11h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces SELL New York Liberty 44¢ $5 13h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 49¢ $118 13h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 47¢ $24 13h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 46¢ $69 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,738.13 · official $2,738.13 (match) · 287 history records