Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x389f…6079 other 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,591 (-1%) realized −$1,590 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate20%32W / 126L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,188per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$20
14 days+$108
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$83
politics 29% −$75
sports 11% −$1,520
economics 4% −$5
world 1% +$60
tech 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 +0.8% -8.8% 11% 6% -9.6%
≤90d 108 -10.9% -19.4% 6% 2% -10.7%
all 158 -0.5% -9.9% 20% 12% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 12% -10.3%
10% -18.6% 12% -18.9%
15% -26.4% 11% -26.7%
20% -33.6% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,626) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$20 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$1,306
Realized−$1,590
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses32 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 160
History coverage156d
Avg bet$1,188
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $879 $878 −$0 (-0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $429 $428 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $943 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $1,207 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,131 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,214 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $2,015 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $5,283 −$6 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $1,819 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,378 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,459 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,392 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 06 $76 +$74 +97%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $2,656 −$3 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $52 +$69 +134%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $2,753 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,431 −$3 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $418 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $521 +$2 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $1,760 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $3,458 −$4 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,732 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,088 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $1,096 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,635 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 25 $59 −$59 -100%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $2,935 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $1,583 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,393 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,583 −$3 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,380 −$2 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 20 $1,102 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,648 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,676 −$3 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $4,017 −$5 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $4,150 −$6 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 06 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,560 −$4 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $1,368 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,377 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $2,575 −$3 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $2,754 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $1,664 −$3 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,550 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $1,516 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $879 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,063 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,064 3h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $941 35h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $943 43h
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 99¢ $429 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,205 2d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,207 2d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,130 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,131 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $939 5d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $940 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,192 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,194 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,593 6d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,595 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $891 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $892 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,376 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,378 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,456 7d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,459 7d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,390 8d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,392 8d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 50¢ $76 10d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,292 11d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,294 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,141 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,143 12d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,490 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,306.45 · official $1,306.45 (match) · 501 history records