Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:06:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
38 0x38a0…3d01 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$45 (+13%) realized +$46 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$87
14 days+$87
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$14
sports 40% +$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +58.6% +43.5% 60% 60% +21.3%
≤30d 11 +44.4% +30.7% 55% 55% +3.3%
≤90d 11 +44.4% +30.7% 55% 55% +3.3%
all 11 +44.4% +30.7% 55% 55% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.7% 55% +3.3%
10% +18.2% 55% -6.6%
15% +6.7% 45% -15.6%
20% -3.7% 45% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$26 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 13
History coverage16d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $30 +$8 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$32 +63%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$36 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $4 +$16 +388%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $42 −$41 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $46 −$45 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 57m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 20¢ $14 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 20¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 78¢ $30 5h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $82 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $51 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 17h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 17h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $20 27h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 20¢ $4 28h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $42 39h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 4d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $46 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.55 · official $33.55 (match) · 27 history records