Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38a3…5dc4 other 204 markets active 2h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%70W / 133L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$2
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$14
politics 25% −$2
other 22% +$1
sports 9% $0
economics 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% −$2
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 29% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 32 +0.6% -9.0% 28% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 88 -0.8% -10.3% 32% 3% -9.3%
all 203 -1.0% -10.4% 34% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.0% 1% -18.0%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses70 / 133
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)203 / 204
History coverage460d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $61 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $115 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $55 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $59 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $159 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $58 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $58 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $171 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $56 −$3 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $23 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $127 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $92 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $55 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $3 $0 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $61 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $60 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $60 $0 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $118 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $62 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $60 −$3 -5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $58 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $58 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $44 +$15 +34%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $45 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $133 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $31 +$4 +12%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $123 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $42 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $132 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $4 +$1 +20%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $17 −$1 -7%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $167 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $114 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $66 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $84 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $46 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $61 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $61 2h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $50 12h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $54 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $5 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $46 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $30 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $6 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $14 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $60 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $60 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $55 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $7 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $52 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $59 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $54 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $56 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $62 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $62 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $23 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.23 · official $45.23 (match) · 840 history records