Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

38 0x38a7…c141 world 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$121 (-20%) realized −$108 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip

Net edge-45%after slip

Net WR20%break-even

Win rate20%1W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$103per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +20%

net ROI/market (all)-44.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	3	-25.1%	-32.2%	33%	33%	-10.6%
all	5	-38.8%	-44.7%	20%	20%	-33.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-44.7%	20%	-33.6%
10%	-50.0%	20%	-40.0%
15%	-54.8%	20%	-45.8%
20%	-59.2%	20%	-51.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -1% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -39% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$102 vs −$56 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.46 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage

Net worth$144

Realized−$108

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)20%

Wins / losses1 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage91d

Avg bet$103

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	No	51¢	47¢	$157	$144	−$13 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation?	Apr 02	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?	Mar 28	$119	+$102	+86%
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Mar 28	$90	−$55	-61%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	Mar 27	$97	−$18	-19%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?	Mar 27	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	BUY No	51¢	$162	1h
Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation?	BUY Yes	14¢	$50	85d
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	SELL Yes	7¢	$35	89d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	SELL Yes	30¢	$79	90d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?	BUY No	18¢	$100	90d
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?	BUY Yes	10¢	$21	90d
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?	SELL No	88¢	$221	90d
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?	BUY No	39¢	$98	91d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	BUY Yes	37¢	$97	91d
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	BUY Yes	18¢	$90	91d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.90 · official $143.90 (match) · 11 history records