Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:43:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38a8…865a
other · 372 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,393 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,069 · open −$209
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$196
Realized−$1,069
Unrealized−$209
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses87 / 261
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions24
Markets (closed)348 / 372
History coverage90d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 24 History 348 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$152
14 days−$196
30 days−$699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $38 $29 −$9 (-24%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Yes 21¢ 9¢ $55 $23 −$32 (-58%)
Will Apyx launch a token by September 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $32 $22 −$10 (-32%)
Will Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 AL East title? Yes 37¢ 29¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $18 $15 −$4 (-20%)
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.6B? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $27 $13 −$14 (-52%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? Yes 25¢ 19¢ $15 $11 −$3 (-23%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $33 $9 −$24 (-72%)
Will Anthropic IPO by September 15, 2026? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-32%)
Will Micron Q3 NAND revenue be above $7.0B? No 18¢ 6¢ $22 $8 −$14 (-65%)
Will Davido perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 15¢ 3¢ $30 $6 −$24 (-79%)
Will Russia capture Bilytske by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-26%)
Will Neutrl launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-60%)
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 2% and 4% in May? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Will Atlanta Braves win the 2026 NL East title? No 19¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-72%)
Will Valantis launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 3¢ $14 $3 −$11 (-76%)
Will Myke Towers perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $20 $3 −$16 (-83%)
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 1.5% and 3%? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-23%)
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-83%)
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 13¢ 1¢ $8 $1 −$8 (-91%)
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.3B? No 14¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Will LedgerX self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No 16¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? Jun 12 $49 −$2 -5%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $82 −$5 -6%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $62 −$13 -21%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -19%
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? Jun 12 $19 −$2 -8%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $307 −$4 -1%
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 11 $35 −$1 -4%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House Jun 11 $6 $0 -2%
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will Reya launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $10 −$5 -50%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Jun 10 $47 +$2 +5%
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $3.1B? Jun 10 $46 −$5 -11%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be below 40.0 in June? Jun 10 $61 −$4 -6%
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Hyperbeat FDV above $10M one day after launch? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 09 $69 −$23 -33%
Will Natus Vincere make a roster change before July? Jun 09 $7 $0 -3%
Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.5B? Jun 09 $22 −$2 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 08 $121 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 08 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.6B? Jun 08 $21 −$2 -10%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 08 $77 −$8 -10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 08 $102 −$16 -16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 08 $90 −$4 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will PPI YoY be between 4.0% and 4.9% in May? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%? Jun 07 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1. Jun 07 $15 $0 -3%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Jun 07 $38 +$1 +2%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? Jun 07 $8 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $299 −$2 -1%
Tread FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 07 $28 −$1 -3%
Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? Jun 07 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $20 −$7 -37%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $875B by June 30? Jun 06 $28 −$13 -45%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 06 $21 $0 -2%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 06 $81 −$2 -2%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 40.0 and 42.9 in June? Jun 06 $8 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 42% −$620
politics 19% −$212
world 14% −$141
tech 11% −$136
sports 4% +$2
crypto 3% −$28
finance 2% −$50
culture 2% −$57
weather 2% −$23
economics 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 16m
Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IP SELL Yes 16¢ $8 27m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 22¢ $17 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 21¢ $2 3h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 21¢ $9 4h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 23¢ $18 4h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 23¢ $12 4h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 5h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 7h
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $20 9h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 12h
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 8¢ $2 13h
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 8¢ $2 13h
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 8¢ $3 13h
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 8¢ $1 13h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 11¢ $4 13h
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 11¢ $4 13h
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? SELL No 18¢ $5 13h
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? SELL No 18¢ $1 13h
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? SELL No 18¢ $2 13h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 9¢ $0 13h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 14h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 14h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 9¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -9.4% -18.0% 9% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 199 -11.2% -19.7% 12% 2% -17.4%
≤90d 348 -12.0% -20.4% 25% 11% -18.1%
all 348 -12.0% -20.4% 25% 11% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 11% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 4% -25.9%
15% -34.9% 1% -33.1%
20% -41.3% 0% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.13 · official $196.16 (match) · 2533 history records