Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:58:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38ab…cdf3
crypto · 116 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
−$72 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$59 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Net worth$36
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses83 / 21
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)104 / 116
History coverage537d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 12 History 104 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 46¢ 23¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-49%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 76¢ 89¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 92¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 62¢ 98¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+58%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 94¢ 92¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum all time high in 2024? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 21? Yes 94¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 3? Yes 97¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 72¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 41¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31? No 74¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 95¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? Jun 02 $14 +$4 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +23%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of May 19 $19 +$4 +23%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 19 $5 $0 +9%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 04 $15 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 17 $12 $0 +2%
USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 09 $14 −$14 -100%
USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch? Apr 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $12 +$3 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Apr 02 $39 +$6 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 02 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 02 $26 +$2 +6%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 02 $30 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch? Apr 02 $38 +$11 +30%
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch? Mar 25 $12 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March? Mar 13 $3 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in February? Mar 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 04 $16 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February? Mar 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Mar 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Mar 04 $34 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in February? Mar 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 04 $17 +$3 +19%
Fabric FDV above $400M one day after launch? Feb 28 $32 +$4 +14%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 23 to February 25, 20 Feb 28 $152 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 25 $16 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Feb 20 $16 $0 -1%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Feb 20 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 14 $5 $0 +6%
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? Feb 11 $5 $0 +8%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 21? Jan 15 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 6? Jan 15 $1 $0 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 15 $5 $0 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 6? Jan 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 9? Jan 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 6? Jan 15 $18 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 9? Jan 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 6? Jan 15 $20 +$2 +10%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 03 $5 $0 +9%
Fed emergency rate cut in 2025? Jan 03 $5 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025? Jan 03 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% −$81
other 23% −$1
politics 5% +$6
world 4% +$7
economics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% +$5
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $8 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $16 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $17 4d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $4 4d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $13 4d
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $13 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $9 11d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 31¢ $2 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 91¢ $18 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 92¢ $19 18d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 47¢ $3 18d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? SELL No 97¢ $17 18d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? BUY No 80¢ $4 25d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 31¢ $3 25d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 75¢ $14 31d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 31d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 36¢ $14 31d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 37d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? SELL Yes 95¢ $6 37d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 93¢ $6 40d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 56¢ $5 40d
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 61¢ $16 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +67.1% +51.2% 100% 67% +11.3%
≤90d 19 +16.5% +5.4% 79% 42% -5.7%
all 104 +5.0% -5.0% 80% 26% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 26% -12.6%
10% -14.1% 11% -20.9%
15% -22.4% 5% -28.6%
20% -30.0% 2% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.70 · official $33.28 · 292 history records