Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:28:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38ab…ab66
politics · 287 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$28 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses63 / 219
Open positions17
Markets (closed)282 / 287
History coverage6d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day608.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 17 History 282 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -2%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $0 $0 -5%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $0 −$4 -2314%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -5%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -16%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -678%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -324%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $0 −$2 -1147%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $0 $0 -31%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 13 $0 −$3 -2820%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $17 $0 +2%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 13 $1 $0 -2%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $4 $0 -1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $31 +$1 +3%
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% +$3
other 25% $0
culture 9% $0
tech 9% −$1
world 8% +$1
economics 4% +$2
crypto 3% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $0 12m
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? SELL No 100¢ $2 13m
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $2 13m
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 13m
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 100¢ $2 13m
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 13m
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 13m
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $0 13m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2 13m
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1 14m
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 14m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $0 14m
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 14m
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $0 14m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 14m
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $0 14m
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 14m
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $14 1h
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $40 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 1h
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 282 -1.6% -11.0% 22% 2% -9.5%
≤30d 282 -1.6% -11.0% 22% 2% -9.5%
≤90d 282 -1.6% -11.0% 22% 2% -9.5%
all 282 -1.6% -11.0% 22% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover608.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 2% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 1% -18.1%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.80 · official $5.33 · 3500 history records