Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:53:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
38 0x38ac…3504 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10,146 (-45%) realized −$10,146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,487per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,506
7 days+$1,506
14 days+$1,506
30 days−$9,223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$127
sports 48% −$9,350
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +60.8% +45.5% 100% 100% +45.8%
≤30d 5 -17.9% -25.7% 40% 40% -46.7%
≤90d 5 -17.9% -25.7% 40% 40% -46.7%
all 5 -17.9% -25.7% 40% 40% -46.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 40% -46.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.8% 20% -51.8%
15% -39.3% 20% -56.5%
20% -45.3% 20% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$753 vs −$3,576 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage29d
Avg bet$4,487
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1,219 +$230 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,243 +$1,276 +103%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 28 $10,392 −$1,149 -11%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 28 $4,991 −$4,991 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) May 27 $4,589 −$4,589 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1,449 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $1,219 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,519 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,243 3h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $9,243 27d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $4,992 28d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2,061 28d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2,151 28d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $157 28d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $162 28d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $153 28d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $153 28d
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $153 28d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $147 29d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $158 29d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $159 29d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $159 29d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $213 29d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $509 29d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $509 29d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $510 29d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $509 29d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $510 29d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $510 29d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $510 29d
Spread: Thunder (-4.5) BUY Spurs 51¢ $4,589 29d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $998 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records