Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:37:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38ad…6aa7 crypto 1506 markets active 1h ago coverage 46d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (52 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,106 (-12%) realized −$1,106 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%676W / 731L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day51.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65
7 days−$101
14 days+$123
30 days+$252
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (52 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 235 +0.7% -8.9% 45% 36% -13.5%
≤30d 901 +7.3% -2.9% 49% 46% -5.2%
≤90d 1407 +5.9% -4.2% 48% 47% -9.2%
all 1407 +5.9% -4.2% 48% 47% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 47% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 45% -17.9%
15% -21.8% 44% -25.8%
20% -29.4% 44% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,106
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses676 / 731
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1407 / 1506
History coverage46d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day51.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1407 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $103 −$44 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $234 +$19 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $181 −$86 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $78 +$35 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$4 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$3 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 21¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 52¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records