Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T01:30:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
38 0x38b0…dd47 sports 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,038 (+8%) realized +$13,347 · open −$3,309
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%42W / 64L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$948per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$392est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$40,902now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$2,524
crypto 32% +$1,767
sports 16% +$1,539
finance 6% +$653
world 5% +$3,294
politics 1% −$149
tech 0% +$206
economics 0% −$95
culture 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +14.6% +3.7% 67% 53% +3.9%
≤30d 47 +21.9% +10.3% 53% 49% +18.6%
≤90d 106 -5.3% -14.3% 40% 36% +2.6%
all 106 -5.3% -14.3% 40% 36% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 36% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.5% 30% -7.2%
15% -30.0% 25% -16.2%
20% -36.8% 22% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$1,136) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$630 vs −$288 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$40,902
Realized+$13,347
Unrealized−$3,309
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses42 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$392
Open positions28
Markets (closed)106 / 134
History coverage72d
Avg bet$948
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $13,316 $15,853 +$2,537 (+19%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $13,675 $11,772 −$1,903 (-14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5,610 $5,023 −$586 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4,335 $2,728 −$1,606 (-37%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 30? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2,083 $1,767 −$315 (-15%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 1? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,072 $883 −$189 (-18%)
Will USD/JPY hit 120 (Low) in 2026? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $1,142 $858 −$283 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 29? Yes 18¢ 13¢ $1,134 $819 −$315 (-28%)
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $520 $476 −$44 (-8%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $504 $180 −$324 (-64%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 28¢ $105 $142 +$37 (+36%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $91 $101 +$10 (+11%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes 14¢ $110 $52 −$58 (-53%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes $80 $46 −$34 (-43%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ $115 $41 −$74 (-65%)
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Yes $25 $31 +$6 (+24%)
Will USD/JPY hit 110 (Low) in 2026? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+33%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 11¢ $5 $18 +$13 (+264%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $114 $15 −$99 (-87%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $31 $8 −$22 (-73%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $18 $8 −$10 (-57%)
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Evan Pettus be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $515 +$156 +30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $440 −$71 -16%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will United Jun 25 $512 +$50 +10%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,020 −$53 -5%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco ( Jun 24 $924 −$567 -61%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 24 $1,019 −$316 -31%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 21 $103 −$89 -87%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the Jun 21 $42 +$29 +68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,036 +$364 +12%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $2,237 +$763 +34%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $517 +$15 +3%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $806 +$586 +73%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $490 +$581 +119%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $307 +$133 +43%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $1,570 +$430 +27%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 19 $82 −$80 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$197 +97%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $183 −$180 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 21? Jun 18 $373 +$362 +97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $754 +$415 +55%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 16 $415 +$210 +51%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $607 −$195 -32%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $367 −$191 -52%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $28 −$26 -95%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $546 +$169 +31%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $673 +$627 +93%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $726 +$274 +38%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $3,010 +$490 +16%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $418 +$882 +211%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $359 −$274 -76%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $73 −$36 -50%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $117 −$116 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $316 −$32 -10%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $110 −$108 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $60 −$58 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $46 −$45 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 12 $1 +$7 +569%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 11 $2,023 +$259 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $443 +$55 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $970 −$38 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,479 −$24 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $794 +$3,215 +405%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $955 +$1,597 +167%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 28 $645 −$178 -28%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $159 +$216 +136%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 24? May 21 $2,121 −$476 -22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 23? May 21 $2,220 −$806 -36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 18? May 17 $1,440 −$1,327 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $1,068 2m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $670 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $140 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,199 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on July 1? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,134 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,136 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 38¢ $369 2h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will United SELL 26¢ $562 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL 33¢ $967 2h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will United BUY 23¢ $512 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $440 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 33¢ $1,020 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco ( SELL $357 27h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND SELL 25¢ $704 27h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Morocco ( BUY 12¢ $924 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 35¢ $1,019 34h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) SELL $13 4d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the BUY Yes 31¢ $354 4d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the BUY Yes 31¢ $153 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY 10¢ $103 4d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the BUY Yes 31¢ $3 4d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the BUY Yes 31¢ $9 4d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the SELL Yes 17¢ $71 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 54¢ $533 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 93¢ $1,392 5d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 72¢ $1,071 5d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) SELL Brazil 30¢ $441 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $3,036 6d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $517 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40,901.53 · official $41,006.06 (match) · 1467 history records