Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38b3…1e06
other · 322 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,897 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,878 · open −$19
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$3,878
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses140 / 187
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)327 / 322
History coverage175d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%
Chart Positions 2 History 327 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$67
14 days−$38
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 22? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 22? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 22? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 22? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 5? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 30? No 39¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? No 47¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on June 8? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or below on May 22? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 22? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 22? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 22? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 22? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or below on May 22? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on May 22? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $64 +$41 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$69 +222%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $48 −$11 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $55 +$45 +82%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $56 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 −$18 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $133 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $52 −$44 -85%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $56 +$44 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $43 −$40 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $52 +$89 +172%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $58 −$31 -53%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $58 +$42 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $110 +$12 +11%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 7? Jun 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $66 −$66 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $54 +$26 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $49 +$2 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $214 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 05 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $26 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 03 $26 +$1 +4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $11 −$4 -33%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $67 −$54 -80%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $14 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $78 +$2 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 95% −$3,616
weather 4% −$157
crypto 0% −$58
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $100 10h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 50¢ $15 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $6 13h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $42 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 37¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 37¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 37¢ $11 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 37¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 37¢ $11 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 31¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 31¢ $29 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 48¢ $48 23h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 50¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? SELL No 56¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? SELL No 56¢ $20 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? SELL No 57¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 55¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 55¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 55¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 55¢ $34 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 11? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -33.1% -39.5% 31% 25% -3.5%
≤30d 84 -28.5% -35.3% 37% 24% -16.0%
≤90d 171 +6.0% -4.1% 38% 30% -51.0%
all 327 +37.8% +24.7% 43% 35% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.7% 35% -18.6%
10% +12.8% 29% -26.3%
15% +1.9% 25% -33.5%
20% -8.1% 20% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.80 · official $5.80 (match) · 3500 history records