Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38b3…bc8e crypto 206 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (558 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$118 (-1%) realized −$99 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate17%35W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day557.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$2,408
crypto 28% −$906
world 1% −$9
sports 0% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (558 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 201 -10.0% -18.6% 17% 16% -62.6%
≤30d 201 -10.0% -18.6% 17% 16% -62.6%
≤90d 201 -10.0% -18.6% 17% 16% -62.6%
all 201 -10.0% -18.6% 17% 16% -62.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover557.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.6% 16% -62.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.4% 15% -66.2%
15% -33.5% 14% -69.5%
20% -40.0% 14% -72.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$25 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$99
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses35 / 166
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)201 / 206
History coverage2d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day557.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 165 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,462 −$2,517 -46%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$3 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -94%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$15 +293%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$24 +233%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$51 +598%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $13 +$6 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$38 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $35 +$22 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$1 -5%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$5 -59%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$8 -69%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$8 -94%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$34 +254%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$10 +331%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$50 +472%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$8 -69%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$13 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$18 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$12 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$9 -37%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$23 +292%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 51m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $406 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 56¢ $507 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $506 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $13 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $505 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $34 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.83 · official $5.83 (match) · 1071 history records