Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:36:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38b3…7538
sports · 306 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$44 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$38 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses96 / 196
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions14
Markets (closed)292 / 306
History coverage285d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 14 History 292 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$4
14 days+$2
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 29¢ 66¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+129%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-47%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Gen.G 62¢ 57¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-44%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Gen.G 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Gen.G 69¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 HANJIN BRION 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI HANJIN BRION 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Dplus KIA 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 DN SOOPers 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner BNK FEARX 22¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Nongshim Red Force 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Team WE 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Team WE 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs ThunderTalk Gaming 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner JD Gaming 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 +$2 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +57%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +596%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$4 +400%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $8 +$2 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $10 +$10 +105%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 03 $4 −$1 -25%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $1 +$4 +291%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1 +$5 +474%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 31 $3 +$2 +90%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $2 +$3 +114%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $4 +$2 +46%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $1 +$14 +1290%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 29 $1 +$3 +255%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $15 +$3 +17%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $3 +$2 +62%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $6 −$5 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 91% −$25
other 5% −$5
world 3% −$13
politics 1% −$5
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $4 3m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 62¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 69¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 50¢ $3 3h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $2 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 4h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team WE 20¢ $1 23h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 23¢ $1 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 26h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 26h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 26h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $1 26h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $1 3d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 53¢ $5 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 8¢ $2 5d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Anyones Legend 19¢ $2 6d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 48¢ $10 7d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 75¢ $8 7d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 30¢ $2 7d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY HANJIN BRION 17¢ $1 8d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner BUY HANJIN BRION 25¢ $1 8d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY HANJIN BRION 20¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +15.8% +4.8% 39% 39% -4.3%
≤30d 84 +11.6% +1.0% 30% 30% -19.7%
≤90d 205 -2.9% -12.2% 28% 28% -21.0%
all 292 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 33% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 33% -13.6%
10% -17.7% 32% -21.9%
15% -25.6% 30% -29.4%
20% -32.9% 28% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.54 · official $30.54 (match) · 453 history records