Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
38 0x38ba…24d1 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$81 (+15%) realized +$88 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$35
crypto 44% +$166
sports 10% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +37.1% +24.0% 58% 58% +16.9%
≤30d 12 +37.1% +24.0% 58% 58% +16.9%
≤90d 12 +37.1% +24.0% 58% 58% +16.9%
all 12 +37.1% +24.0% 58% 58% +16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.0% 58% +16.9%
10% ← realistic here +12.2% 58% +5.7%
15% +1.3% 58% -4.5%
20% -8.6% 50% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$36 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$113
Realized+$88
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$26 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$71 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$66 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$75 +143%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 7h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 7h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 11h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $93 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 17h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 17h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $37 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $113.24 · official $113.24 (match) · 28 history records