Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:19:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
38 0x38be…5b1a other 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$664 (+9%) realized +$710 · open −$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%23W / 14L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$721now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$487
7 days+$627
14 days+$591
30 days+$570
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$213
sports 40% +$277
crypto 1% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +43.3% +29.7% 70% 70% -0.2%
≤30d 37 +10.7% +0.2% 62% 54% -1.8%
≤90d 37 +10.7% +0.2% 62% 54% -1.8%
all 37 +10.7% +0.2% 62% 54% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.2% 54% -1.8%
10% -9.4% 51% -11.2%
15% -18.2% 41% -19.8%
20% -26.2% 30% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$41 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$721
Realized+$710
Unrealized−$46
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses23 / 14
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions5
Markets (closed)37 / 42
History coverage26d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $700 $654 −$46 (-7%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+13%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $737 −$30 -4%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,598 +$313 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,856 −$343 -18%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,109 −$11 -1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $341 +$438 +129%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $220 +$120 +54%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $95 +$52 +54%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $56 +$39 +70%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $30 +$25 +84%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $21 $0 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -5%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $39 −$39 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +43%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $34 −$34 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $36 −$2 -5%
Will Panama vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 06 $20 +$12 +58%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $66 +$43 +65%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $34 +$11 +32%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5) Jun 06 $10 +$12 +116%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 06 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 02 $7 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $10 −$5 -49%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $20 +$9 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 01 $6 +$4 +65%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $1 $0 +10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $94 −$92 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 30 $20 +$11 +55%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 29 $13 +$5 +38%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 29 $1 +$1 +128%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $8 +$2 +30%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $707 14m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 58¢ $706 15m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $737 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $731 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $603 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $610 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $571 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $571 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $424 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 48¢ $403 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 68¢ $527 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 63¢ $500 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 60¢ $500 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 67¢ $571 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 53¢ $571 2h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $609 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 66¢ $610 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $779 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $340 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $340 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $220 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $95 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $56 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $21 11d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $21 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $20 11d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $721.49 · official $742.00 · 121 history records