Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:37:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38bf…28e2 finance 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care finance specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 2d only
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (1438 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$1,802 (+11%) realized +$2,310 · open −$508
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +105% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$909per market
Trades / day1438.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7,026now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% +$1,170
finance 29% −$375
other 2% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+85.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +105.1% +85.6% 67% 33% +0.5%
≤30d 3 +105.1% +85.6% 67% 33% +0.5%
≤90d 3 +105.1% +85.6% 67% 33% +0.5%
all 3 +105.1% +85.6% 67% 33% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1438.4 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +85.6% 33% +0.5%
10% +67.8% 33% -9.1%
15% ← realistic here +51.6% 33% -17.9%
20% +36.7% 33% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +105% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
93.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$836 vs −$438 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.82 per $1 lost it wins $3.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$7,026
Realized+$2,310
Unrealized−$508
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions22
Markets (closed)3 / 18
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$909
Trades / day1438.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 66¢ 78¢ $709 $830 +$121 (+17%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? Yes 62¢ 72¢ $686 $797 +$111 (+16%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $399 $410 +$11 (+3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $325 $348 +$23 (+7%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 86¢ 99¢ $300 $345 +$46 (+15%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 82¢ 70¢ $380 $325 −$54 (-14%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $288 $291 +$4 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $284 $288 +$3 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $274 $278 +$3 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 81¢ 99¢ $227 $277 +$49 (+22%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 78¢ 98¢ $211 $266 +$55 (+26%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $258 $262 +$5 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $253 $259 +$6 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $247 $248 +$1 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Up 48¢ 66¢ $178 $245 +$67 (+38%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $237 $238 +$1 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 80¢ 92¢ $205 $236 +$31 (+15%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 74¢ 93¢ $181 $227 +$46 (+25%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 91¢ 88¢ $173 $167 −$5 (-3%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? No 50¢ 28¢ $247 $135 −$112 (-45%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June? Yes 41¢ 22¢ $205 $111 −$94 (-46%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Down 58¢ 34¢ $162 $97 −$65 (-40%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $77 $72 −$5 (-6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $69 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $4,250 +$217 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 19? Jun 19 $6,405 −$438 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $459 +$1,456 +317%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 66¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 67¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 66¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 64¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 64¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 66¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 65¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 56¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 54¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 53¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 54¢ $4 19m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 92¢ $9 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 56¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 56¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 52¢ $8 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 48¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Up 49¢ $2 39m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 42m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 42m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 42m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 42m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 42m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 42m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 42m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 42m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 42m
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 49¢ $7 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 51¢ $8 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Up 52¢ $8 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,026.29 · official $7,026.32 (match) · 3500 history records