Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38bf…9ddf weather 53 markets active 4d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$138 (-66%) realized −$141 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -66% what you keep after slip
Net edge-66%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%9W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$5
14 days−$22
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 75% −$119
other 14% −$9
tech 8% −$9
finance 2% −$4
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-63.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -56.9% -61.0% 0% 0% -48.4%
≤30d 50 -59.3% -63.2% 18% 12% -73.7%
≤90d 50 -59.3% -63.2% 18% 12% -73.7%
all 50 -59.3% -63.2% 18% 12% -73.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.2% 12% -73.7%
10% -66.7% 12% -76.3%
15% -69.9% 8% -78.5%
20% -72.9% 8% -80.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -66% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses9 / 41
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage12d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will George Clooney be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Yes 3¢ 13¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+387%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+25%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $330 in June? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 16, 2026? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -25%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$190 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 21 be betwe Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 21 be betwe Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $8 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 4? Jun 05 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 4? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 4? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 3? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$3 +317%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 +$3 +156%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on Jun Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on June 2? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 2? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $460 on June 2? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 2? Jun 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 2? Jun 03 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 4? Jun 02 $1 $0 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4? Jun 02 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 4? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026 Jun 02 $8 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C or below on June 3? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 5d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY No 61¢ $4 6d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 3? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 3? BUY No 39¢ $2 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 3? BUY No 1¢ $1 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 3? BUY No 1¢ $0 15d
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 3? BUY No 1¢ $1 15d
Will George Clooney be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? BUY No 6¢ $0 15d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? BUY No 6¢ $1 15d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 3? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.82 · official $5.84 (match) · 205 history records