Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38c0…1158 sports 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$313 (-11%) realized −$315 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$129
7 days−$129
14 days−$129
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$194
other 23% −$171
finance 13% +$81
world 5% −$93
crypto 5% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -18.6% -26.3% 25% 25% -35.9%
≤30d 4 -18.6% -26.3% 25% 25% -35.9%
≤90d 10 -33.8% -40.1% 30% 20% -24.1%
all 30 -20.3% -27.9% 47% 30% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.9% 30% -19.6%
10% -34.8% 20% -27.3%
15% -41.1% 13% -34.3%
20% -46.8% 3% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$47 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$315
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage217d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 60¢ $57 $60 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $86 +$13 +16%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $256 −$122 -48%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$21 -41%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $52 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $166 +$67 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 24? Apr 23 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 24? Apr 23 $15 −$14 -94%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 14 $55 −$6 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 07 $200 +$14 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $155 −$93 -60%
Manchester City FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 2.5 Mar 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-25? Mar 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 4.5 Mar 18 $301 −$205 -68%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Mar 18 $273 +$105 +39%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: O/U 1.5 Mar 18 $88 +$12 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $45 −$5 -11%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in March? Mar 10 $74 −$18 -24%
FC Barcelona vs. FC København: O/U 2.5 Jan 28 $35 +$3 +10%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-21? Jan 22 $53 +$23 +43%
FC Bayern München vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 2.5 Jan 21 $68 −$15 -22%
Galatasaray SK vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jan 21 $141 −$73 -52%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Jan 11 $126 +$15 +12%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Jan 11 $119 +$6 +5%
Over $100M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $78 +$42 +54%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Dec 30 $60 +$2 +4%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 26 $29 +$8 +28%
Will Spain win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $150 −$96 -64%
Will Austria win on 2025-11-18? Nov 18 $38 −$17 -45%
Thunder vs. Hornets Nov 18 $21 +$2 +9%
Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers Nov 16 $20 +$6 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $21 0m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $6 0m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 6m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 15¢ $69 12m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 27m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 27m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 27m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 51m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 51m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 51m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $40 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $46 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $65 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $29 24h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 25h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $0 25h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $41 25h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 52¢ $51 25h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 51¢ $52 25h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $233 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 24? BUY Yes $2 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.50 · official $59.50 (match) · 123 history records