Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:52:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x38c1…57d1 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$66 (-3%) realized −$19 · open −$47
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$964now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$30
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$97
sports 34% +$98
world 6% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +29.4% +17.1% 57% 57% -27.6%
≤30d 15 +14.2% +3.3% 53% 53% +3.6%
≤90d 23 +14.6% +3.7% 52% 52% +10.3%
all 31 +5.3% -4.7% 55% 45% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 45% -9.0%
10% -13.8% 45% -17.7%
15% -22.1% 42% -25.6%
20% -29.8% 42% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$23 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$964
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$47
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions11
Markets (closed)31 / 43
History coverage163d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $151 $173 +$22 (+15%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $150 $164 +$14 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $140 $152 +$12 (+9%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 46¢ $150 $110 −$41 (-27%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 52¢ $100 $88 −$12 (-12%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 65¢ 65¢ $86 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $82 −$18 (-18%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 36¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 40¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-29%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$14 +135%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$13 +124%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $28 +$26 +92%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $16 −$15 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 +$14 +140%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Jun 03 $15 +$14 +90%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 03 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $17 −$16 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5 May 07 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 06 $31 +$39 +127%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $6 $0 -7%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League semifin Apr 15 $40 +$23 +59%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Mar 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs Mar 14 $95 $0 +0%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Mar 13 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11? Mar 12 $75 +$19 +25%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 11 $37 +$38 +103%
Mavericks vs. Bulls Jan 10 $58 −$58 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 06 $80 −$80 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $41 37h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 44¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 6d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $52 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 93¢ $0 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 92¢ $1 7d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY 51¢ $27 7d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY 40¢ $25 7d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 8d
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 8d
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks $3 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 44¢ $20 10d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $100 11d
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 11d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $16 11d
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 12d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 12d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $31 12d
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 58¢ $16 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $40 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $963.72 · official $988.72 · 95 history records