Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:06:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38c2…cdc0
crypto · 314 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$271 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$306 · open +$35
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,075
Realized−$306
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses297 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)313 / 314
History coverage82d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 313 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days−$353
14 days−$318
30 days−$315
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? No 97¢ 99¢ $2,040 $2,075 +$35 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $201 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $200 +$2 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $256 +$25 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $203 +$27 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $354 −$354 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 07 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 07 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 07 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 07 $40 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 07 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 07 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 07 $6 −$6 -94%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $94 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 05 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 04 $60 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 04 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 03 $66 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 03 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 03 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 03 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 02 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 02 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 02 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 02 $66 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 01 $66 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 01 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 01 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 01 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 01 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 68% −$346
other 27% +$47
sports 5% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 97¢ $2,042 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $230 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $203 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $256 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $354 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $80 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $60 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 88¢ $94 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $6 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -9.9% -18.5% 88% 4% -20.8%
≤30d 65 -3.2% -12.4% 94% 6% -16.9%
≤90d 313 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 10% -14.4%
all 313 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 10% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 10% -14.4%
10% -18.7% 3% -22.5%
15% -26.6% 1% -30.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,074.70 · official $2,074.70 (match) · 684 history records