Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38c3…c6cc crypto 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate84%141W / 27L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$20
politics 1% −$1
sports 1% −$5
tech 1% −$15
other 0% −$7
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -6.4% -15.3% 70% 59% -9.0%
≤30d 69 -13.1% -21.4% 70% 38% -8.5%
≤90d 117 -7.9% -16.6% 79% 22% -9.8%
all 168 -5.3% -14.3% 84% 16% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 16% -9.8%
10% -22.5% 9% -18.4%
15% -30.0% 7% -26.3%
20% -36.8% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses141 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)168 / 175
History coverage143d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 168 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? No 99¢ 99¢ $121 $121 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? No 82¢ 81¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 84¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 +20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +129%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1 $0 +11%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +19%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 $0 +38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 $0 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 $0 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $124 +$2 +2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 $0 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +16%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +21%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$1 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $125 +$2 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $121 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 60¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 51¢ $1 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 82¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $122 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $121 24h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $1 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 61¢ $1 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $1 24h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 24h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 4d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $1 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 72¢ $1 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.68 · official $126.68 (match) · 322 history records