Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38c4…7c65 sports 724 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$360 (-1%) realized −$517 · open +$157
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate63%452W / 269L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$542est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$720now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,776
7 days+$510
14 days+$262
30 days−$1,687
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$1,273
other 2% −$846
world 1% −$507
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 48% -6.4%
≤30d 72 +3.4% -6.5% 57% 56% -16.1%
≤90d 544 -10.9% -19.4% 51% 51% -16.6%
all 721 +4.1% -5.8% 63% 62% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 62% -9.8%
10% -14.8% 61% -18.5%
15% -23.0% 50% -26.3%
20% -30.6% 31% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$90 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$720
Realized−$517
Unrealized+$157
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses452 / 269
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$542
Open positions3
Markets (closed)721 / 724
History coverage140d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 721 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 49¢ 68¢ $420 $579 +$159 (+38%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? No 38¢ 38¢ $89 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Czechia 27¢ 26¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $219 +$431 +197%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,322 +$428 +32%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $298 +$302 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $209 +$291 +140%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $114 +$146 +127%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5,467 +$1,410 +26%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $297 +$288 +97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $395 −$389 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $210 −$206 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $214 −$210 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $232 +$286 +124%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $462 −$455 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $915 −$901 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $746 +$282 +38%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $282 −$277 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $746 −$735 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $406 +$444 +109%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $282 +$289 +103%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $167 −$164 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 12 $139 −$136 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 12 $403 −$397 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $665 +$290 +44%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $333 −$328 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $164 −$162 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $136 −$133 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $145 −$142 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 10 $299 −$294 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5 Jun 10 $480 +$448 +93%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 10 $521 +$448 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $290 −$286 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $292 −$288 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $2,551 −$2,541 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 03 $74 −$72 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 31 $78 +$72 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5 May 31 $165 +$148 +90%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $372 −$369 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 27 $48 +$45 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 27 $45 +$44 +97%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 218.5 May 27 $47 +$43 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $30 −$30 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) May 25 $54 −$53 -99%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 25 $37 +$43 +119%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 25 $37 +$43 +119%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) May 25 $47 +$44 +93%
Will Fulham FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 25 $125 +$43 +34%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw? May 25 $154 +$42 +27%
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC: Both Teams to Score May 24 $41 +$44 +105%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $49 +$44 +90%
Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna: Both Teams to Score May 24 $65 +$43 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $90 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 27¢ $55 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $219 9h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $1,322 9h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $427 9h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $298 9h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $209 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $82 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $1 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $3 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $4 22h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $395 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $210 34h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $3,043 34h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $2,423 34h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $297 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $214 41h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $462 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $232 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $11 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $128 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $310 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $460 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $746 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $282 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 51¢ $460 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $719.52 · official $719.52 (match) · 3339 history records