Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:52:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
38 0x38c5…22d8 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$956 (+6%) realized +$679 · open +$277
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate78%18W / 5L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$685per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$2,778now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$535
7 days+$535
14 days+$535
30 days+$1,056
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% +$320
sports 20% +$382
politics 7% +$132
other 1% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.5% +4.5% 92% 75% +5.6%
≤30d 16 +13.5% +2.7% 88% 62% -0.4%
≤90d 23 +4.6% -5.4% 78% 57% -5.3%
all 23 +4.6% -5.4% 78% 57% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 57% -5.3%
10% -14.4% 30% -14.3%
15% -22.7% 4% -22.6%
20% -30.3% 4% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,135) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$142 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$2,778
Realized+$679
Unrealized+$277
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses18 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage44d
Avg bet$685
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 93¢ $2,501 $2,778 +$277 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $78 −$78 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $208 +$23 +11%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $157 +$44 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $107 +$96 +90%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $150 +$15 +10%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $168 +$33 +20%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $150 +$51 +34%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $261 +$52 +20%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $320 +$80 +25%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) Jun 25 $308 +$94 +31%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 25 $501 +$40 +8%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) Jun 25 $783 +$85 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $1,869 +$279 +15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $1,947 −$48 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $1,772 +$175 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,657 +$115 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $1,890 −$495 -26%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $245 +$16 +7%
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China? May 22 $1,135 +$132 +12%
Bengaluru 2: Sasikumar Mukund vs Hamish Stewart May 13 $16 −$10 -62%
Bengaluru 2: Ilya Ivashka vs Kokoro Isomura May 13 $91 −$81 -90%
Bengaluru 2: Keegan Smith vs Dominik Palan May 13 $116 +$31 +27%
Bengaluru 2: Joshua Charlton vs Ognjen Milic May 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $78 59m
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $89 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 67¢ $68 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 88¢ $88 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $33 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 92¢ $82 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 92¢ $1 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 92¢ $9 2h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 87¢ $87 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 52¢ $107 3h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $78 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $70 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $80 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $166 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $8 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $72 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $84 5h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $84 5h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 85¢ $88 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 80¢ $320 16h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 76¢ $308 17h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 90¢ $773 17h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) BUY Curaçao 89¢ $10 17h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 92¢ $310 18h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 92¢ $0 18h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Ecuador 92¢ $191 18h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $2,501 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 87¢ $1,869 26d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? SELL No 95¢ $1,899 28d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? BUY No 98¢ $119 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,777.67 · official $2,777.67 (match) · 244 history records