Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38c5…dea8 sports 44 markets active 13h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$947 (-18%) realized −$947 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$418
7 days−$1,136
14 days−$990
30 days−$990
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$951
other 4% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -16.7% -24.6% 44% 34% -32.8%
≤30d 44 -19.9% -27.5% 41% 30% -26.8%
≤90d 44 -19.9% -27.5% 41% 30% -26.8%
all 44 -19.9% -27.5% 41% 30% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 30% -26.8%
10% -34.4% 27% -33.8%
15% -40.8% 23% -40.2%
20% -46.6% 18% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$66 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$947
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage8d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $41 +$16 +39%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 165.5 Jun 20 $99 +$76 +76%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $267 −$211 -79%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5 Jun 19 $85 −$84 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Samobor: Jozef Kovalik vs Dimitar Kuzmanov Jun 19 $10 +$9 +90%
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet Jun 19 $40 +$3 +7%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos Jun 19 $73 −$4 -5%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $24 +$22 +92%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $37 −$36 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $295 −$9 -3%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $292 +$105 +36%
StarCraft II: MaxPax vs SHIN (BO5) - WardiTV Championship Playoffs Jun 18 $90 −$88 -98%
Set Handicap: Ambrogi (-1.5) vs Taverna (+1.5) Jun 17 $192 −$189 -99%
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Siniakova (+1.5) Jun 17 $213 −$210 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $378 +$26 +7%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $167 −$14 -9%
Set Handicap: Casanova (-1.5) vs Escurra (+1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$11 +52%
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 +$4 +18%
ITF Kayseri: Aditya Kothari vs Muzammil Murtaza Jun 16 $160 +$3 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $84 +$102 +120%
Parma: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 15 $87 −$3 -4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $304 −$300 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +103%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 14 $148 +$36 +24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $201 +$48 +24%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
CD Unión La Calera leading at halftime? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $180 −$177 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Bartunkova vs Gauff Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $697 −$24 -3%
Tarvet vs. Romano: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Set Handicap: Almeida (-1.5) vs Rodriguez (+1.5) Jun 12 $174 +$2 +1%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $78 +$89 +114%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 12 $26 −$2 -6%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 12 $18 −$1 -8%
Set Handicap: Silva (-1.5) vs Petak (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Set Handicap: Bernet (-1.5) vs Schlagenhauf (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 3? Jun 12 $92 −$91 -99%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $299 +$163 +55%
Set Handicap: Lajovic (-1.5) vs Batalla (+1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bu vs. Riedi: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $50 −$2 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $210 13h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 47¢ $85 13h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 49¢ $51 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 13h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 14h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 SELL Over 52¢ $21 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $24 15h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $33 15h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 16h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 16h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 16h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 56¢ $31 17h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 18h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 18h
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 56¢ $48 18h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $21 19h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos SELL SSG Landers 49¢ $70 24h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A SELL eSuba 97¢ $40 24h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A SELL eSuba 97¢ $3 24h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A SELL eSuba 97¢ $3 24h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. NC Dinos BUY SSG Landers 50¢ $73 24h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 50¢ $18 25h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 50¢ $6 25h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $37 25h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 41¢ $102 26h
ITF Samobor: Jozef Kovalik vs Dimitar Kuzmanov BUY Dimitar Kuzmanov 52¢ $10 26h
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet BUY Dylan Dietrich 93¢ $10 27h
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet BUY Dylan Dietrich 93¢ $10 27h
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet BUY Dylan Dietrich 93¢ $10 27h
ITF Klosters: Dylan Dietrich vs Adrien Burdet BUY Dylan Dietrich 93¢ $10 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records