Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38c6…97ae
sports · 392 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$440 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$458 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$126
Realized+$458
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses144 / 237
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions11
Markets (closed)381 / 392
History coverage133d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 11 History 381 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$45
14 days−$115
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 42¢ 88¢ $20 $42 +$22 (+110%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $51 $26 −$25 (-49%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 26¢ 20¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-25%)
Spread: United States (-2.5) United States 36¢ 24¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 58¢ 12¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-78%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+50%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner T1 31¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner T1 33¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner JD Gaming 27¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner GIANTX 16¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Team Vitality 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 22¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner T1 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster 18¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$15 +73%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $25 −$25 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$51 +335%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$21 +414%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $12 $0 -2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $11 +$3 +30%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 11 $10 +$17 +165%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $14 +$29 +216%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $11 −$11 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $11 −$11 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $13 −$12 -98%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $41 −$20 -49%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $25 $0 -1%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 4 Winner May 31 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs DN SOOPers Challengers - Game 2 Winner May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $20 +$11 +55%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 28 $20 +$21 +104%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $20 +$47 +232%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner May 27 $20 +$20 +100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 27 $10 +$63 +611%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 3 Winner May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 25 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 25 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner May 25 $20 +$9 +46%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 25 $10 +$9 +85%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $5 +$12 +226%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 25 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 25 $30 $0 -1%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 24 $10 +$24 +238%
Zagreb: Jan Choinski vs Arthur Fery May 24 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 88% +$521
other 5% −$1
finance 3% +$3
crypto 2% −$9
economics 1% −$51
weather 0% −$19
world 0% −$3
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 25¢ $5 10m
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 46¢ $10 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 42¢ $20 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 16¢ $5 15h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $10 15h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $10 15h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 32¢ $5 16h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $5 16h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $10 16h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $10 17h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 62¢ $13 17h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $10 17h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 15¢ $5 18h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 82¢ $67 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 24h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 35h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 43h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 43h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 43h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 43h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 19¢ $5 47h
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 17¢ $2 5d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Dplus KIA 58¢ $10 5d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $10 5d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 8¢ $1 5d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 20¢ $10 5d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 14¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +38.0% +24.8% 43% 43% +12.9%
≤30d 89 -3.0% -12.2% 36% 36% -6.4%
≤90d 326 -2.0% -11.4% 34% 34% -10.2%
all 381 +3.4% -6.4% 38% 37% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 37% -2.1%
10% -15.4% 37% -11.5%
15% -23.5% 36% -20.0%
20% -31.0% 32% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $126.15 · official $126.15 (match) · 1119 history records