Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
38 0x38c7…5a76 other 52 markets active 7h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$164 (+12%) realized +$133 · open +$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%22W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$92
sports 37% +$241
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +1.9% -7.8% 51% 49% -1.0%
≤30d 43 +1.9% -7.8% 51% 49% -1.0%
≤90d 43 +1.9% -7.8% 51% 49% -1.0%
all 43 +1.9% -7.8% 51% 49% -1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 49% -1.0%
10% -16.6% 44% -10.5%
15% -24.6% 42% -19.1%
20% -32.0% 26% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized+$133
Unrealized+$31
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses22 / 21
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions9
Markets (closed)43 / 52
History coverage6d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 56¢ 82¢ $80 $118 +$38 (+47%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 58¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Morocco finish second in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kevin De Bruyne score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 59¢ 53¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 24¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 51¢ 40¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$2 -20%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 +$10 +67%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -23%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$77 +152%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 +$81 +158%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +58%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +47%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $11 +$8 +74%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$39 +38%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 +$2 +205%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -91%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$7 +64%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 +$12 +226%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $281 +$87 +31%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -84%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 $0 -5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$6 +42%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +103%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$93 -92%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $111 −$111 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $110 +$12 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners SELL Over 0¢ $0 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $25 7h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 43¢ $10 7h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $1 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 8h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $128 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $131 8h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $82 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $51 8h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 61¢ $51 10h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $15 10h
Argentina to win the second half? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 10h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $3 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $141 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $101 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $19 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 12h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $10 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $10 13h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 8¢ $2 13h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.29 · official $196.29 (match) · 114 history records