Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:14:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38cb…06a6
sports · 69 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$72 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$49 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Net worth$70
Realized+$49
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses37 / 28
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)65 / 69
History coverage27d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 4 History 65 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$67
14 days+$1
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 70¢ $35 $36 +$2 (+5%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 72¢ 70¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 38¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-39%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$13 +66%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $15 +$12 +78%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $10 +$10 +99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $20 +$2 +11%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 09 $15 +$6 +42%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $15 +$8 +51%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 07 $10 −$2 -22%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 07 $5 +$6 +116%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 07 $20 +$7 +33%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $25 +$17 +66%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Diane Parry Jun 02 $25 +$13 +53%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $126 +$46 +36%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +21%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 01 $5 +$3 +69%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $10 +$4 +41%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $20 +$7 +33%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 29 $5 +$2 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $35 +$45 +128%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 29 $10 +$8 +78%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $20 +$10 +51%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire May 28 $10 +$4 +40%
Washington Mystics vs. Seattle Storm May 28 $20 +$13 +66%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $10 +$7 +66%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 27 $30 +$7 +24%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 27 $36 +$19 +52%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 25 $5 +$5 +99%
Counter-Strike: ALGO Esports vs Omega (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champi May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) May 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA May 23 $10 +$9 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% −$54
other 16% +$14
politics 10% +$46
world 6% +$46
finance 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 73¢ $10 13h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 14h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $20 17h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 19h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 19h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $10 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 19h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY FURIA 59¢ $20 19h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $15 19h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $10 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $20 37h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $10 40h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $5 40h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $25 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 63¢ $15 4d
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 70¢ $10 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 89¢ $20 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 55¢ $15 5d
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery BUY Daria Kasatkina 50¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 45¢ $15 6d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 69¢ $15 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 48¢ $8 7d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 65¢ $15 7d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 59¢ $25 8d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner BUY Liquid 72¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -28.4% -35.2% 47% 47% -31.5%
≤30d 65 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 57% -5.7%
≤90d 65 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 57% -5.7%
all 65 -5.7% -14.7% 57% 57% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 57% -5.7%
10% -22.8% 52% -14.7%
15% -30.3% 45% -23.0%
20% -37.1% 35% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.80 · official $69.80 (match) · 150 history records