Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:31:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x38cc…603f sports 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$152 (+22%) realized +$152 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$57
sports 47% +$145
crypto 5% +$21
world 2% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +12.7% +2.0% 52% 52% +8.1%
≤30d 33 +12.7% +2.0% 52% 52% +8.1%
≤90d 33 +12.7% +2.0% 52% 52% +8.1%
all 33 +12.7% +2.0% 52% 52% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.0% 52% +8.1%
10% -7.8% 52% -2.3%
15% -16.7% 48% -11.7%
20% -24.9% 45% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$15 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$152
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $26 −$17 -67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 +$21 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $34 +$15 +44%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $19 −$5 -27%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $28 +$8 +29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 +$15 +67%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 −$8 -51%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$11 +58%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $12 +$19 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$26 +85%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $24 +$27 +114%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $31 −$26 -85%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$31 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $30 +$31 +101%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +138%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$35 +172%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 −$4 -51%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $16 −$12 -73%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $26 +$31 +119%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $22 +$35 +158%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $13 +$11 +86%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $18 +$25 +135%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$17 +109%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$15 +143%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -58%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -73%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 15¢ $8 0m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 44¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 15h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $34 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 17h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Minnesota Lynx 36¢ $14 17h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Minnesota Lynx 48¢ $19 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 17¢ $6 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 86¢ $30 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $28 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 20h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 30¢ $7 20h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $15 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $22 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 23h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 100¢ $31 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $8 25h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 37¢ $12 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 25h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 81¢ $25 41h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 37¢ $3 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 46¢ $24 45h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Qatar 7¢ $5 46h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 44¢ $31 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 36¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records