Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38cc…8210 other 16 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$5 (-4%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate75%12W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$13
sports 11% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +24.3% +12.4% 75% 62% -15.2%
≤30d 16 +24.3% +12.4% 75% 62% -15.2%
≤90d 16 +24.3% +12.4% 75% 62% -15.2%
all 16 +24.3% +12.4% 75% 62% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.4% 62% -15.2%
10% +1.7% 56% -23.3%
15% -8.2% 38% -30.8%
20% -17.2% 25% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses12 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage7d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $6 +$8 +137%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +26%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$20 -79%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $18 +$4 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +6%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +192%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +43%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +103%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 79¢ $11 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 74¢ $3 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $25 27h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 38h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $13 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $18 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 82¢ $3 47h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 79¢ $3 47h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 88¢ $3 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records