Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38cd…fff4 crypto 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$369 (-18%) realized −$467 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate12%10W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$417
other 17% +$98
politics 1% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 81 -14.4% -22.5% 12% 11% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 11% -32.8%
10% -29.9% 11% -39.2%
15% -36.7% 10% -45.1%
20% -42.9% 9% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$12 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$439
Realized−$467
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses10 / 71
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage145d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $194 $212 +$18 (+9%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Yes 12¢ 24¢ $97 $186 +$88 (+91%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 03 $97 −$15 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 03 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 02 $59 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 02 $42 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Feb 02 $50 −$49 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on February 2? Feb 02 $103 −$101 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 26-1? Feb 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 1, 2PM ET Feb 02 $19 −$11 -56%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 1? Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 1? Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 01 $201 −$141 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 01 $12 −$12 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 1, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 01 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 01 $13 +$11 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 1, 1PM ET Feb 01 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 2? Feb 01 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on February 1? Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 1? Feb 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 January 26-1? Jan 31 $5 +$98 +1959%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jan 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 31 $146 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jan 31 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jan 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 3 Jan 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 3 Jan 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 3 Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on February 3 Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 3 Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 2? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on February 2? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on February 2? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 2? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 3? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 3? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on February 2 Jan 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on February 2 Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 2 Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on February 2 Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 2? Jan 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 2? Jan 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on February 1? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on February 1? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on February 1? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 1? Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 1? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 1? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 1? Jan 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 12¢ $100 43m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $149 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $0 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $12 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $12 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $21 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $27 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $22 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $23 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $17 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 140d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $17 140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 140d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $23 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $21 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $21 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $19 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $19 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $17 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $16 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $15 141d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $14 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $439.06 · official $440.55 (match) · 193 history records