Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:17:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38ce…2040 crypto 1622 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$336 (+3%) realized +$336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate95%1536W / 86L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day86.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$11
14 days−$35
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 498 -0.7% -10.1% 94% 11% -10.1%
≤30d 1622 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 10% -9.8%
≤90d 1622 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 10% -9.8%
all 1622 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 10% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 10% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 4% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1536 / 86
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1622 / 1622
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day86.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1622 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +24%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 8m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $4 22m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 33m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 43m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 48m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 53m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $7 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $7 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.00 · official $4.00 (match) · 3500 history records