Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38cf…05c2 other 114 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$144 (+3%) realized −$408 · open +$552
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%38W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1,882now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$178
7 days+$54
14 days+$38
30 days−$323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$476
sports 15% −$202
crypto 4% −$35
world 0% −$2
weather 0% −$5
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +8.4% -1.9% 33% 33% -5.0%
≤30d 75 -23.3% -30.6% 23% 21% -26.3%
≤90d 103 -12.6% -21.0% 37% 33% -24.9%
all 103 -12.6% -21.0% 37% 33% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 33% -24.9%
10% -28.5% 29% -32.1%
15% -35.4% 24% -38.7%
20% -41.8% 18% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$1,882
Realized−$408
Unrealized+$552
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses38 / 65
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)103 / 114
History coverage82d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $1,200 $1,676 +$476 (+40%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? No 7¢ 9¢ $100 $130 +$30 (+30%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner Paraguay 30¢ 100¢ $20 $67 +$47 (+235%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 29 $51 −$46 -91%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $41 −$20 -49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $102 +$44 +43%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $10 +$56 +550%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 28 $101 −$2 -2%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $32 −$8 -26%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$17 -81%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $202 +$126 +62%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$22 +224%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $152 +$94 +62%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$4 -83%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 $0 -7%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $5 +$11 +226%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$8 +83%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 +$2 +158%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $4 +$7 +161%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $5 −$2 -39%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -21%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +52%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $5 +$20 +388%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $15 −$12 -77%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$8 -51%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$13 +65%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 $0 -26%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $36 −$8 -22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$5 -16%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $23 −$8 -33%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $16 −$3 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$6 +50%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 3¢ $5 58m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Take First Corner BUY Paraguay 30¢ $20 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 67¢ $101 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 7¢ $21 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 43¢ $146 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 4h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? AND Will England win on 2026-07- BUY 25¢ $500 28h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY 16¢ $50 28h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $99 29h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 32h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 32h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 65¢ $24 47h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $32 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31? BUY No 7¢ $104 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $246 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists AND Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY 24¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY 17¢ $5 3d
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 30¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,882.11 · official $2,371.25 · 347 history records