Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38d2…4d20 politics 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-7%) realized +$2 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$2
world 15% +$1
sports 11% −$4
other 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+53.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +69.3% +53.2% 50% 50% +53.5%
≤30d 2 +69.3% +53.2% 50% 50% +53.5%
≤90d 2 +69.3% +53.2% 50% 50% +53.5%
all 2 +69.3% +53.2% 50% 50% +53.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +53.2% 50% +53.5%
10% ← realistic here +38.5% 50% +38.8%
15% +25.1% 50% +25.4%
20% +12.9% 50% +13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions41
Markets (closed)2 / 43
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? Yes 52¢ 48¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Will Jorginho Mello win the Governor of Santa Catarina election? Yes 91¢ 91¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 68¢ 72¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 52¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Will Orleans Brandão win the Governor of Maranhão election? Yes 14¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? Yes 44¢ 54¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Loyiso Masuku be the next mayor of Johannesburg? No 76¢ 83¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Gabriel Souza win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election? No 92¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Dr. Luizinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 93¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will André Ceciliano win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Veneziano Vital do Rêgo win the Governor of Paraíba election? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Nicola Miccione win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 90¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Felipe Curi win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election? No 95¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Darijana Filipović be the Croat Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? Yes 60¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? No 86¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +222%
Club Bolívar vs. Bamin Real Potosí: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 0m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 0m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 0m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 1m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 4m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 4m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 4m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 11m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 16m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 17m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 17m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 18m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 28m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 28m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 29m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 29m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 34m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 38m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 54m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 54m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 54m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 55m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 57m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 57m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 58m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 58m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 58m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 58m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 58m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.78 · official $50.37 (match) · 127 history records