Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38d6…d072 weather 429 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$297 (+1%) realized +$240 · open +$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate89%372W / 48L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day57.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$988now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$192
7 days+$413
14 days+$600
30 days+$637
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$463
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 106 +1.6% -8.1% 88% 9% -6.2%
≤30d 291 +0.5% -9.1% 89% 9% -7.0%
≤90d 420 -0.6% -10.1% 89% 8% -8.4%
all 420 -0.6% -10.1% 89% 8% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 8% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 5% -17.1%
15% -26.6% 3% -25.1%
20% -33.8% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$988
Realized+$240
Unrealized+$57
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses372 / 48
Open positions10
Markets (closed)420 / 429
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$77
Trades / day57.3
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 420 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? Yes 86¢ 96¢ $260 $292 +$32 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? No 95¢ 100¢ $247 $259 +$12 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $199 $208 +$9 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 96¢ 100¢ $74 $78 +$3 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $59 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? No 92¢ 100¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? No 88¢ 90¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+2%)
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $237 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $172 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $87 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $91 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $52 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $424 +$18 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $301 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Jun 17 $205 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 16? Jun 17 $120 +$3 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $126 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $37 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $353 +$18 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $399 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $0 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $319 +$20 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $128 +$7 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $237 +$22 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 16 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $47 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 16 $107 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $24 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $52 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $112 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $201 +$17 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $304 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$7 +172%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $47 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $32 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $142 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $192 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $265 +$15 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $61 29m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $65 39m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $80 39m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 79¢ $15 41m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 58m
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 58m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 98¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $49 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $242 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 88¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $48 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $38 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 89¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $175 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $6 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $987.91 · official $987.91 (match) · 3500 history records