Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:34:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
38 0x38d7…a061 weather 788 markets active 1h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (177 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$336 (-0%) realized −$342 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%766W / 3L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day177.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,660now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$221
14 days+$469
30 days+$656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$662
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (177 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 276 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 769 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 769 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 769 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover177.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 0% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×180.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×46051.2 per $1 lost it wins $46051.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$3,660
Realized−$342
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses766 / 3
Open positions18
Markets (closed)769 / 788
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$239
Trades / day177.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 769 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $499 $500 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $499 $500 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $499 $500 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $499 $500 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $395 $395 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $278 $279 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $250 $250 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $239 $240 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $187 $187 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $114 $114 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 17? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $482 +$18 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 26°C on June 17? Jun 18 $135 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? Jun 18 $210 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 17? Jun 18 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $370 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $269 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $292 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $262 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $317 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 17 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 17 $495 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 17 $190 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $134 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 16? Jun 17 $261 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $499 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 17 $189 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 17 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 16? Jun 17 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $144 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $495 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $155 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 16? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $499 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $499 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $482 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $155 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $82 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $370 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $395 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $140 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $92 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $118 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $23 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $14 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $27 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $6 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 5h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $499 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,660.33 · official $3,659.97 (match) · 3500 history records