Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38d8…b47c other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 35L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$1
other 33% +$5
tech 12% −$2
politics 11% −$2
crypto 1% $0
sports 1% +$2
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 0% -9.4%
all 58 -4.1% -13.2% 40% 5% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 5% -9.2%
10% -21.5% 2% -17.9%
15% -29.1% 2% -25.8%
20% -36.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage446d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $102 +$2 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $34 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $34 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $35 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $17 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $65 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $32 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $68 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $11 $0 +3%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will the National Party of Suriname win the most seats in the 2025 Sur May 23 $16 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $100K on May 23? May 22 $16 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Okarun win Crunchyroll's Best Main Character Award for 2025? May 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will X buy TikTok? May 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 15 $14 +$2 +17%
Will Sali Berisha be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $25 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 05 $1 $0 -14%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 30 $6 −$3 -42%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Apr 27 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next Canadi Apr 27 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Apr 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Apr 19 $21 $0 -0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? Apr 17 $47 $0 +0%
Trump x Xi talk by Friday? Apr 17 $22 $0 +0%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 14 $24 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Apr 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 11 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $7 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 75¢ $27 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $22 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $34 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $20 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $13 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $8 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $25 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $7 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $27 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $10 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $24 23h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $5 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $29 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $27 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $7 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $17 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $29 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $36 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $33 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $6 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $27 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 184 history records