Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:07:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38dc…4a07 sports 211 markets active 1h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%18W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$4
politics 22% −$3
other 21% −$2
crypto 10% −$1
culture 9% −$1
world 5% −$2
economics 3% $0
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -2.6% -11.8% 0% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 3 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -10.1%
all 210 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses18 / 192
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)210 / 211
History coverage176d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 210 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 94¢ 94¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yann Sommer record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 10 $19 −$1 -4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 26 $41 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 15 $46 +$1 +1%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 11 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 11 $44 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $189 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 10 $46 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $205 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 09 $173 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 08 $46 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 08 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 08 $178 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 08 $46 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $80 +$1 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 07 $44 $0 -0%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 07 $44 −$2 -4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $102 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 06 $91 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 03 $47 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 24 $141 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 24 $39 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 24 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 24 $326 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 24 $11 $0 -0%
Will Coinbase be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $173 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $203 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $182 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $95 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $376 −$1 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $97 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $147 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $48 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $188 −$1 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Feb 21 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 94¢ $39 1h
Will Yann Sommer record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World C SELL No 94¢ $18 14d
Will Yann Sommer record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY No 98¢ $19 14d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $40 28d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $41 29d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL No 97¢ $47 39d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? BUY No 96¢ $46 40d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 104d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 104d
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $45 104d
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $44 105d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 96¢ $30 105d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $30 105d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $40 105d
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $40 105d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? SELL No 98¢ $47 105d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 97¢ $46 105d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 105d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 106d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $45 106d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $45 106d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 97¢ $44 106d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 96¢ $44 107d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $44 107d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $43 107d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $42 107d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $42 107d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? SELL No 98¢ $46 107d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $46 107d
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $34 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.94 · official $38.94 (match) · 759 history records