trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 8 | +18.4% | +7.1% | 62% | 62% | +13.9% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +6.5% | -3.7% | 40% | 40% | +3.3% |
| all | 15 | +6.5% | -3.7% | 40% | 40% | +3.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.7% | 40% | +3.3% |
| 10% | -12.9% | 33% | -6.6% |
| 15% | -21.3% | 33% | -15.6% |
| 20% | -29.0% | 20% | -23.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 13¢ | $90 | $100 | +$11 (+12%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 6¢ | $97 | $65 | −$31 (-32%) |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | No | 20¢ | 8¢ | $98 | $42 | −$55 (-56%) |
| Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 4¢ | $12 | $38 | +$26 (+221%) |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 21¢ | 64¢ | $10 | $32 | +$21 (+202%) |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 2¢ | 2¢ | $15 | $14 | −$1 (-6%) |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 13¢ | 3¢ | $51 | $12 | −$40 (-77%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $1 | −$9 (-87%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 15? | Jun 14 | $477 | +$86 | +18% |
| Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 | Jun 13 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 | Jun 13 | $19 | +$31 | +158% |
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $29 | +$53 | +184% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $70 | +$30 | +44% |
| Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rally? | Jun 08 | $164 | +$71 | +44% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 30 | $39 | −$38 | -98% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | May 22 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? | May 18 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-17? | May 18 | $77 | +$423 | +550% |
| Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? | May 17 | $62 | −$60 | -97% |
| Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $103 | −$97 | -94% |
| Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | May 16 | $251 | −$250 | -100% |