Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:56:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x38dc…b392 other 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$97 (+5%) realized +$174 · open −$77
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$251
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$7
world 40% +$80
sports 6% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +18.4% +7.1% 62% 62% +13.9%
≤90d 15 +6.5% -3.7% 40% 40% +3.3%
all 15 +6.5% -3.7% 40% 40% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 40% +3.3%
10% -12.9% 33% -6.6%
15% -21.3% 33% -15.6%
20% -29.0% 20% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$56 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized+$174
Unrealized−$77
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)15 / 23
History coverage36d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $90 $100 +$11 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $97 $65 −$31 (-32%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 20¢ $98 $42 −$55 (-56%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $12 $38 +$26 (+221%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 21¢ 64¢ $10 $32 +$21 (+202%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $14 −$1 (-6%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ $51 $12 −$40 (-77%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes $10 $1 −$9 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $477 +$86 +18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $19 +$31 +158%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $29 +$53 +184%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $70 +$30 +44%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $164 +$71 +44%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 30 $39 −$38 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Paris FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $77 +$423 +550%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $103 −$97 -94%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $251 −$250 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 7m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 66¢ $131 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 49¢ $99 1h
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $42 7d
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 12¢ $37 7d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $20 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $19 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $31 9d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 94¢ $94 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 94¢ $376 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 89¢ $445 10d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $12 10d
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rally? BUY Yes 69¢ $140 13d
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rally? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 56¢ $15 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 56¢ $7 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 56¢ $26 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $32 16d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $92 21d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $99 21d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 26¢ $39 22d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes $2 22d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $2 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $0 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.52 · official $305.52 (match) · 114 history records