Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:44:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
38 0x38dd…bb12 other 624 markets active 12h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$193 (+6%) realized +$178 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate64%363W / 206L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$31
14 days+$137
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$143
other 38% +$81
world 2% +$4
crypto 2% −$39
finance 1% −$4
economics 0% −$2
politics 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +2.5% -7.2% 71% 60% -5.9%
≤30d 125 +8.3% -2.0% 75% 69% +2.1%
≤90d 329 -8.2% -17.0% 58% 52% -5.1%
all 569 -2.4% -11.7% 64% 58% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 58% -4.5%
10% -20.1% 49% -13.7%
15% -27.8% 37% -22.0%
20% -34.9% 23% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$342
Realized+$178
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses363 / 206
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions55
Markets (closed)569 / 624
History coverage278d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 55 History 569 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 80¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 77¢ 74¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $29 +$9 (+43%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $28 +$8 (+38%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+22%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $17 −$4 (-21%)
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Dan Hooker fight Charles Oliveira next? No 97¢ 83¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-14%)
Will Elon Musk buy OnlyFans? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 64¢ 86¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes 31¢ 67¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+113%)
Will Alexandre Pantoja become UFC champion in 2026? Yes 57¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-23%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 18¢ 40¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+119%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 85¢ 82¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 +$10 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $30 +$11 +36%
Will Fermín López score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$14 +48%
Will Jeremie Frimpong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $3 −$1 -20%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$4 +21%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$6 +27%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 +$8 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 $0 +2%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 13 $20 +$6 +31%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$11 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$15 +76%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$20 +97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 +$5 +26%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$21 +105%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $20 +$9 +44%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$8 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $20 +$18 +90%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$11 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $20 +$4 +18%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 08 $2 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $20 +$7 +36%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $20 +$7 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $2 +$1 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $2 +$1 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 07 $2 +$1 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $30 11h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $30 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $30 11h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $30 36h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $30 36h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $10 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $20 36h
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $3 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $20 40h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 69¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $11 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 3d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $20 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 BUY Under 82¢ $20 3d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $20 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $20 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $20 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $342.25 · official $342.40 (match) · 1165 history records