Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:47:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38de…f06c other 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$86 (+2%) realized +$76 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$146
14 days−$179
30 days−$214
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$463
sports 23% +$338
crypto 1% −$68
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +8.5% -1.8% 32% 29% -12.4%
≤30d 79 -9.2% -17.9% 28% 25% -13.6%
≤90d 79 -9.2% -17.9% 28% 25% -13.6%
all 79 -9.2% -17.9% 28% 25% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 25% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 23% -21.9%
15% -32.9% 16% -29.4%
20% -39.5% 16% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$29 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 57
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions3
Markets (closed)79 / 82
History coverage14d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $102 $114 +$12 (+12%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $8 −$4 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $141 −$140 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$77 +26%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 19 $171 +$254 +148%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $31 −$8 -26%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 19 $221 +$21 +10%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 19 $101 −$73 -72%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $83 +$19 +23%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$131 +64%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$24 +239%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$15 -65%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $485 −$133 -28%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $148 −$7 -5%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$24 +115%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$17 +170%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -8%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $500 −$364 -73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $404 +$107 +26%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $113 −$6 -5%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 −$39 -85%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +138%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$28 +91%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$49 +241%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$5 -24%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $151 +$34 +22%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $301 +$53 +17%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$54 +267%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $173 +$192 +111%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $72 −$61 -85%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 21m
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $45 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.63 · official $223.63 (match) · 342 history records