Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:15:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

38 0x38de…8fe3 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$223 (-20%) realized −$166 · open −$57

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -74% what you keep after slip

Net edge-74%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$109per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$742now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-73.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-70.7%	-73.5%	0%	0%	-69.2%
≤30d	3	-70.7%	-73.5%	0%	0%	-69.2%
≤90d	3	-70.7%	-73.5%	0%	0%	-69.2%
all	3	-70.7%	-73.5%	0%	0%	-69.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-73.5%	0%	-69.2%
10%	-76.0%	0%	-72.1%
15%	-78.3%	0%	-74.8%
20%	-80.5%	0%	-77.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -66% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -71% · $-wt -66% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$58 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage

Net worth$742

Realized−$166

Unrealized−$57

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions7

Markets (closed)3 / 10

History coverage16d

Avg bet$109

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$269	$282	+$14 (+5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$100	$156	+$56 (+56%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$100	$82	−$18 (-18%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	3¢	2¢	$100	$75	−$25 (-25%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$100	$64	−$36 (-36%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	1¢	$100	$52	−$48 (-48%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	Japan	27¢	26¢	$30	$30	−$1 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$61	−$60	-98%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 27	$103	−$12	-12%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 24	$103	−$103	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance	BUY Japan	27¢	$31	1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	8¢	$10	25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	25¢	$51	2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	1¢	$91	2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$174	15d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	15d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	15d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	15d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	15d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	15d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$103	15d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	3¢	$103	15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$103	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $742.15 · official $742.16 (match) · 30 history records