Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:34:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

38 0x38df…fdd8 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$93 (-12%) realized −$63 · open −$30

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip

Net edge-0%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate65%13W / 7L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$34per market

Trades / day8.6pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit87%portable

Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+7.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+19.1%	+7.8%	65%	60%	-20.1%
≤30d	20	+19.1%	+7.8%	65%	60%	-20.1%
≤90d	20	+19.1%	+7.8%	65%	60%	-20.1%
all	20	+19.1%	+7.8%	65%	60%	-20.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.8%	60%	-20.1%
10%	-2.5%	55%	-27.7%
15%	-12.0%	30%	-34.7%
20%	-20.6%	15%	-41.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

8% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +19% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +24% → late +14% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$29 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$115

Realized−$63

Unrealized−$30

Win rate (resolved)65%

Wins / losses13 / 7

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions3

Markets (closed)20 / 23

History coverage5d

Avg bet$34

Trades / day8.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 20 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	FURIA	74¢	74¢	$99	$98	−$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BetBoom Team	45¢	46¢	$17	$17	+$0 (+1%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	T1 Academy	62¢	0¢	$30	$0	−$30 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl	Jun 18	$97	−$66	-68%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$57	+$5	+10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$20	+$10	+50%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	Jun 17	$8	+$39	+474%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$36	−$36	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET	Jun 17	$10	+$2	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 14	$61	−$36	-58%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$50	−$2	-3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 14	$29	−$16	-55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET	Jun 13	$21	−$20	-97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 13	$13	+$8	+59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 13	$25	+$6	+26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 13	$20	+$9	+43%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 13	$19	+$15	+78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 13	$30	+$12	+38%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	Jun 13	$54	+$13	+24%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner	Jun 13	$30	−$30	-99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 13	$24	+$5	+23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	Jun 13	$27	+$8	+28%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo	Jun 13	$5	+$1	+26%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs	BUY FURIA	74¢	$100	1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo	BUY BetBoom Team	45¢	$17	1h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl	BUY Ground Zero	66¢	$3	3h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl	BUY Ground Zero	66¢	$42	3h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl	BUY Ground Zero	66¢	$20	3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	BUY T1 Academy	62¢	$30	7h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl	SELL Ground Zero	75¢	$31	7h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl	BUY Ground Zero	79¢	$10	7h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl	BUY Ground Zero	78¢	$22	9h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	100¢	$63	9h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	91¢	$31	12h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	100¢	$30	12h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	91¢	$26	14h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	66¢	$20	14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	77¢	$36	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET	SELL Up	91¢	$12	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$10	22h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$8	22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	SELL Down	23¢	$17	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	SELL Down	23¢	$2	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	SELL Down	23¢	$6	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Down	53¢	$61	4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	SELL Gen.G	69¢	$48	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	SELL Up	14¢	$13	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Up	29¢	$29	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET	BUY Down	51¢	$21	4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY Gen.G	70¢	$50	4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL Legacy	100¢	$20	4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL Vitality	100¢	$32	4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Legacy	62¢	$13	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.43 · official $115.43 (match) · 48 history records