Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:45:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
38 0x38e3…56cf sports 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 424d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$485 (+4%) realized +$491 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate47%62W / 70L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$81
14 days+$64
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$307
other 10% +$70
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +47.3% +33.3% 53% 53% +13.5%
≤30d 44 +17.6% +6.4% 55% 41% -2.6%
≤90d 103 +3.4% -6.4% 50% 32% -5.6%
all 132 -1.3% -10.7% 47% 33% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 33% -5.9%
10% -19.3% 27% -14.9%
15% -27.1% 25% -23.1%
20% -34.2% 19% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

424d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized+$491
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses62 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 152
History coverage424d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Shivamogga Yodhas vs Coastal Kings Mangaluru Coastal Kings Mangaluru 95¢ 92¢ $247 $241 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings Jun 28 $12 +$17 +144%
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas Jun 27 $9 +$40 +450%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end Jun 27 $5 +$9 +184%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $5 $0 -6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$2 -46%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $5 +$2 +30%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 +$3 +63%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $10 +$30 +315%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $219 +$26 +12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $9 −$9 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $1 +$1 +65%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +7%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $5 +$8 +152%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $222 +$28 +13%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $10 +$8 +75%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs Seattle Orcas Jun 19 $11 +$27 +248%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $218 +$11 +5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$5 +78%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $10 +$50 +490%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $11 −$4 -32%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 −$91 -90%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 +$19 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $296 +$27 +9%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $287 +$35 +12%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $256 +$19 +8%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $20 −$20 -99%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $482 +$17 +4%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $101 +$49 +49%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $476 −$24 -5%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $602 +$36 +6%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $101 +$45 +44%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Shivamogga Yodhas vs Coastal Kings Mangaluru BUY Coastal Kings Mangaluru 95¢ $147 1h
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Shivamogga Yodhas vs Coastal Kings Mangaluru BUY Coastal Kings Mangaluru 94¢ $100 1h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings SELL Washington Freedom 95¢ $28 7h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Texas Super Kings BUY Washington Freedom 39¢ $12 7h
Andhra Premier League: Simhadri Vizag Lions vs Tungabhadra Warriors BUY Tungabhadra Warriors 10¢ $10 24h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas SELL San Francisco Unicorns 99¢ $49 31h
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Seattle Orcas BUY San Francisco Unicorns 18¢ $9 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end SELL 95¢ $14 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end BUY 33¢ $5 35h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY 24¢ $5 35h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06 BUY 19¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Paraguay vs. Australia BUY 20¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Australia win on 2026-0 BUY 11¢ $5 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 43¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 91¢ $7 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $8 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $5 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 44¢ $5 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 69¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Exact Score: Any Other Score BUY $5 3d
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings SELL Texas Super Kings 91¢ $40 3d
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 22¢ $1 3d
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 22¢ $1 3d
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 22¢ $3 3d
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 22¢ $3 3d
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings BUY Texas Super Kings 22¢ $3 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.01 · official $241.01 (match) · 303 history records