Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:56:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38e5…8a4a
crypto · 64 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,013 -50%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,911 · open −$102
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,230
Realized−$4,911
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses48 / 454
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)502 / 64
History coverage1d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day3440.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 502 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,911
7 days−$4,911
14 days−$4,911
30 days−$4,911
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 52¢ 100¢ $348 $668 +$320 (+92%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 39¢ 100¢ $242 $614 +$372 (+154%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 61¢ 100¢ $364 $598 +$234 (+64%)
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 53¢ 100¢ $279 $523 +$244 (+88%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 44¢ 100¢ $227 $510 +$283 (+125%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Up 62¢ 100¢ $294 $478 +$183 (+62%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $340 $444 +$103 (+30%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Up 47¢ 100¢ $185 $394 +$209 (+113%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Up 74¢ 100¢ $290 $392 +$101 (+35%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 78¢ 100¢ $270 $344 +$74 (+28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 62¢ 70¢ $269 $308 +$39 (+15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Up 45¢ 100¢ $130 $289 +$159 (+122%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 75¢ 100¢ $200 $268 +$68 (+34%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 64¢ 100¢ $136 $213 +$77 (+57%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Up 58¢ 100¢ $99 $171 +$72 (+73%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Down 39¢ 30¢ $180 $136 −$45 (-25%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 62¢ 100¢ $72 $116 +$44 (+61%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Up 83¢ 100¢ $83 $100 +$17 (+20%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 45¢ 100¢ $45 $100 +$54 (+120%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 70¢ 100¢ $59 $85 +$26 (+44%)
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 38¢ 100¢ $32 $84 +$53 (+166%)
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 69¢ 100¢ $56 $81 +$25 (+45%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 51¢ 74¢ $55 $80 +$25 (+45%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Up 77¢ 100¢ $62 $80 +$18 (+29%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Down 60¢ 100¢ $47 $78 +$32 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $279 −$279 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $358 −$358 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $211 −$211 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $279 +$488 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $283 −$283 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $174 −$174 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $185 +$209 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $159 −$159 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $69 −$69 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $86 −$86 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $56 +$25 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $58 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $22 −$22 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$22 +85%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$20 +515%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +72%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +85%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +54%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$267
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $2 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 2m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-77.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 502 -75.0% -77.4% 10% 7% -30.1%
≤30d 502 -75.0% -77.4% 10% 7% -30.1%
≤90d 502 -75.0% -77.4% 10% 7% -30.1%
all 502 -75.0% -77.4% 10% 7% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3440.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -77.4% 7% -30.1%
10% ← realistic here -79.6% 5% -36.8%
15% -81.5% 4% -42.9%
20% -83.3% 3% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,229.67 · official $8,215.52 (match) · 3500 history records