Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x38e5…95e7
politics · 409 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$50,536 +48%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17,478 · open +$19,606
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$308,594
Realized+$17,478
Unrealized+$19,606
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses41 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$125
Open positions499
Markets (closed)70 / 409
Avg bet$257
Trades / day307.4
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 499 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$865
7 days+$8,000
14 days+$17,478
30 days+$17,478
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 48¢ 88¢ $9,631 $17,394 +$7,762 (+81%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $9,860 $11,061 +$1,202 (+12%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 50¢ 64¢ $7,598 $9,727 +$2,129 (+28%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 85¢ 97¢ $8,012 $9,165 +$1,153 (+14%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 72¢ 96¢ $6,417 $8,625 +$2,208 (+34%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $7,419 $8,387 +$968 (+13%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 18¢ 18¢ $7,828 $7,726 −$102 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $5,814 $7,257 +$1,443 (+25%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 20¢ 18¢ $4,439 $3,814 −$624 (-14%)
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 65¢ 57¢ $3,879 $3,446 −$433 (-11%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $2,875 $3,380 +$505 (+18%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 30¢ 34¢ $2,721 $3,015 +$294 (+11%)
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $2,840 $3,006 +$166 (+6%)
Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat? No 92¢ 96¢ $2,576 $2,701 +$125 (+5%)
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $2,930 $2,683 −$247 (-8%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 51¢ 56¢ $2,407 $2,659 +$252 (+10%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 92¢ $2,645 $2,631 −$14 (-1%)
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? No 87¢ 93¢ $2,408 $2,577 +$169 (+7%)
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-28 House seat? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $2,453 $2,557 +$104 (+4%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 56¢ 61¢ $2,221 $2,436 +$215 (+10%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $2,314 $2,322 +$8 (+0%)
Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $2,250 $2,316 +$65 (+3%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? No 90¢ 97¢ $2,101 $2,279 +$178 (+8%)
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-13 House seat? Yes 92¢ 97¢ $2,142 $2,253 +$111 (+5%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 66¢ 56¢ $2,569 $2,199 −$370 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary Jun 12 $142 −$23 -16%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 12 $94 −$12 -13%
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $53 −$8 -15%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $17 +$54 +318%
Will Jocelyn Benson win the 2026 Michigan Governor Democratic primary Jun 12 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $8 −$2 -18%
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-03 House seat? Jun 12 $8 +$54 +673%
Will any World Cup game scheduled in the U.S. be relocated abroad? Jun 11 $90 +$846 +937%
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-10 House seat? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -26%
Will both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of Jun 11 $302 −$140 -46%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $14 −$2 -18%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 +36%
Will the Democratic Party win the NH-02 House seat? Jun 10 $17 +$137 +812%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 10 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Canada reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 10 $386 −$207 -54%
Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Jun 10 $8 −$6 -73%
Will Troy Green be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Dan Goldman be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Jun 10 $8 −$3 -38%
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s Jun 10 $4 +$18 +406%
Will one Democratic Party candidate and one Republican Party candidate Jun 09 $681 +$1,166 +171%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $1,139 −$1,053 -92%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 09 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $4 +$2 +36%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $81 +$63 +78%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 09 $519 +$25 +5%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 09 $237 −$163 -69%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 09 $4 −$3 -73%
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prim Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $52 −$49 -93%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $17 +$3,121 +18402%
Will Chicago Cubs win the 2026 NL Central title? Jun 09 $53 −$34 -63%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 09 $7 −$6 -86%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $22 −$11 -48%
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primar Jun 09 $3 +$2 +76%
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2026 NFC North? Jun 08 $4 +$3 +70%
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Jun 08 $51 −$49 -97%
Will Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 NL Central title Jun 08 $102 +$104 +102%
Will Green Bay Packers win the 2026 NFC North? Jun 08 $18 −$12 -65%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $219 +$3 +1%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Syria win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $98 +$2 +2%
Will "Giant" win Best Play at the 2026 Tony Awards? Jun 08 $131 +$10 +8%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $3,412 +$327 +10%
Will Larry Rhoden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primar Jun 07 $210 −$198 -94%
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $3 $0 +18%
Will England win? Jun 07 $1,143 +$1,257 +110%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1,061 +$39 +4%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $515 +$93 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 74% +$21,451
politics 21% +$20,530
sports 3% −$4,416
tech 1% −$47
world 0% −$508
crypto 0% +$80
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 97¢ $27 5m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $86 16m
Will Czechia finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 18¢ $37 23m
Will Kansas City Royals win the 2026 AL Central title? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28m
Glean IPO before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $8 41m
Glean IPO before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $8 41m
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $3 51m
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $1 52m
Will UBS fail by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 59m
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $17 1h
Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary BUY No 32¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 34¢ $7 1h
Will Apvienotais Saraksts (AS) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian BUY No 86¢ $10 1h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $23 1h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL OpenAI 23¢ $45 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $62 1h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $38 1h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL OpenAI 25¢ $25 1h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL OpenAI 25¢ $2 1h
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? SELL OpenAI 25¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $31 1h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $33 1h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 72¢ $33 1h
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parli BUY Yes 25¢ $14 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 1h
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $43 1h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 71¢ $29 1h
Glean IPO before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $15 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+134.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +130.0% +108.1% 53% 36% +10.9%
≤30d 70 +159.6% +134.9% 59% 44% +40.3%
≤90d 70 +159.6% +134.9% 59% 44% +40.3%
all 70 +159.6% +134.9% 59% 44% +40.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover307.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +134.9% 44% +40.3%
10% ← realistic here +112.4% 39% +26.8%
15% +91.9% 37% +14.6%
20% +73.1% 33% +3.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308,594.12 · official $318,222.40 · 3500 history records