Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x38e5…d36c sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$90 (-11%) realized −$84 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%6W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$54
other 16% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -35.7% -41.8% 32% 32% -15.2%
≤30d 19 -35.7% -41.8% 32% 32% -15.2%
≤90d 19 -35.7% -41.8% 32% 32% -15.2%
all 19 -35.7% -41.8% 32% 32% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 32% -15.2%
10% -47.4% 32% -23.3%
15% -52.4% 32% -30.7%
20% -57.1% 26% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -74% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$25 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$84
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses6 / 13
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage6d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 56¢ 50¢ $56 $50 −$6 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $47 +$53 +114%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $57 −$14 -26%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 −$24 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $87 −$57 -65%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $32 −$31 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $63 +$37 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $60 +$40 +67%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $40 −$39 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $58 +$42 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 +$50 +101%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $43 −$42 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $42 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 56¢ $57 2h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $25 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 27¢ $28 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $28 5h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $32 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $60 6h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $40 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $60 22h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 56¢ $57 22h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $47 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $63 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $43 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $58 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $50 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $46 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.50 · official $50.50 (match) · 33 history records