Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

38 0x38e9…e333 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$233 (+101%) realized +$233 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +116% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +96% what you keep after slip

Net edge+96%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$77per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+95.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+116.3%	+95.7%	100%	100%	+95.1%
≤30d	2	+116.3%	+95.7%	100%	100%	+95.1%
≤90d	2	+116.3%	+95.7%	100%	100%	+95.1%
all	2	+116.3%	+95.7%	100%	100%	+95.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+95.7%	100%	+95.1%
10%	+77.0%	50%	+76.4%
15%	+59.9%	50%	+59.4%
20%	+44.2%	50%	+43.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 93% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +116% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +116% · $-wt +116% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$115 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$32

Realized+$233

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$77

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Main Card)	Hyder Amil	33¢	34¢	$31	$32	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	Jun 20	$99	+$214	+216%
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals	Jun 19	$100	+$17	+16%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma	BUY Hyder Amil	33¢	$32	1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla	BUY Team Falcons	31¢	$99	29h
Nestory Irankunda: 1+ goals	BUY No	85¢	$100	29h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 5 history records